ReLAX: Reinforcement Learning Agent eXplainer for Arbitrary Predictive Models (preprint)

Counterfactual examples (CFs) are one of the most popular methods for attaching post-hoc explanations to machine learning (ML) models. However, existing CF generation methods either exploit the internals of specific models or depend on each sample's neighborhood, thus they are hard to generalize for complex models and inefficient for large datasets. This work aims to overcome these limitations and introduces ReLAX, a model-agnostic algorithm to generate optimal counterfactual explanations. Specifically, we formulate the problem of crafting CFs as a sequential decision-making task and then find the optimal CFs via deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with discrete-continuous hybrid action space. Extensive experiments conducted on several tabular datasets have shown that ReLAX outperforms existing CF generation baselines, as it produces sparser counterfactuals, is more scalable to complex target models to explain, and generalizes to both classification and regression tasks. Finally, to demonstrate the usefulness of our method in a real-world use case, we leverage CFs generated by ReLAX to suggest actions that a country should take to reduce the risk of mortality due to COVID-19. Interestingly enough, the actions recommended by our method correspond to the strategies that many countries have actually implemented to counter the COVID-19 pandemic.

Modeling and Computation of High Efficiency and Efficacy Multi-Step Batch Testing for Infectious Diseases (preprint)

We propose a mathematical model based on probability theory to optimize COVID-19 testing by a multi-step batch testing approach with variable batch sizes. This model and simulation tool dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of the tests in a large population at a low cost, particularly when the infection rate is low. The proposed method combines statistical modeling with numerical methods to solve nonlinear equations and obtain optimal batch sizes at each step of tests, with the flexibility to incorporate geographic and demographic information. In theory, this method substantially improves the false positive rate and positive predictive value as well. We also conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to verify this theory. Our simulation results show that our method significantly reduces the false negative rate. More accurate assessment can be made if the dilution effect or other practical factors are taken into consideration. The proposed method will be particularly useful for the early detection of infectious diseases and prevention of future pandemics. The proposed work will have broader impacts on medical testing for contagious diseases in general.